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自2016年特朗普入主白宫以来,美国政治步入了一个剧烈震荡的政党重组周期。这种重组不仅体现在选举层面的版图漂移,更深入到政党联盟、权力结构及意识形态的底层逻辑之中。步入2026年,随着特朗普2.0执政步入关键阶段,美国政治的演进正从早期的“剧烈震荡”转向“持续固化”。共和党在基本完成“MAGA化”转型的同时,面临着新右翼势力的崛起及激进外交决策引发的内部博弈,而民主党则在进步主义扩张与新中间派整合之间寻求平衡。与此同时,拉丁裔选民的政治回摆、两党内部持续释放的反建制主义情绪,以及由对伊朗军事打击等外部战事触发的立场冲突,共同构成了2026年中期选举的关键变量。展望未来,美国政党重组正进入一个相对稳定却也更为激烈的阶段,两党的选民联盟、权力结构和意识形态将持续处于一种自我调适的状态,并影响着美国的内政与外交。
Abstract：Since Donald Trump assumed office at the White House in 2016, American politics has entered a period of intense and volatile party realignment. This realignment is not only manifested in the territorial shift at the electoral level but also penetrates deeper into the underlying logic of party alliances, power structures, and ideologies. Entering 2026, as the Trump 2. 0 administration reaches a crucial stage, the evolution of American politics is transitioning from the initial “violent upheaval” to “deep consolidation”. While the Republican Party has largely completed its “ MAGA” transformation, it is faced with the emergence of new right-wing forces and internal power struggles triggered by radical diplomatic decisions. The Democratic Party is striving to strike a balance between progressive expansion and the integration of the “new centrists”. Meanwhile, the political backlash from Latino voters, the continuous expression of anti-establishment sentiment within both parties, and the position conflicts arising from external wars such as the military strike against Iran collectively constitute the key variables in the 2026 midterm elections. Looking forward, the realignment of political parties in the United States is entering a relatively stable yet more intense phase. The voter alliances, power structures, and ideologies of the two parties will continue to be in a state of selfadjustment and will have an impact on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States.
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(1)迈克尔·沃特利(Michael Whatley)因其全力支持特朗普关于2020年选举被窃取的主张而成为新任全国主席,特朗普儿媳拉拉·特朗普(Lara Trump)担任联合主席,高级竞选顾问克里斯·拉奇维塔(Chris La Civita)负责日常运营,并全面清洗被认为忠诚度不足的职员。
(2)“增长俱乐部”是一个成立于1999年的保守派政治组织。它是一个501(c)(4)非营利组织,由一群支持经济增长和有限政府的美国人组成,目前拥有超过50万名成员。该组织专注于推动财政保守主义政策,包括减税、减少政府监管、促进自由企业,并通过游说、支持亲增长候选人以及影响国会立法来实现目标。它是美国领先的自由企业倡导团体,常参与选举活动,并在必要时挑战任何不符合其原则的国会议员,无论党派。
(1)“罗克布里奇网络”是一个美国保守派政治倡导组织/捐助者联盟,成立于2019年,由当时时任参议员的万斯和克里斯·巴斯基克(Chris Buskirk)共同创立。它常被描述为一种“政治风险投资公司”,主要由硅谷科技界保守派富豪和特朗普支持者资助,旨在“颠覆但推进共和党议程”,通过资助保守派媒体、法律项目、政策研究、选民登记、纪录片制作等,来重塑美国右翼政治生态,推动MAGA运动在特朗普之后的长期延续。
(1)后现代主义文化是20世纪中后期(大致从20世纪60年代起)兴起于西方发达工业社会的一种文化思潮和生活方式总称。它是对现代主义和现代性的反叛与超越,强调不确定性、碎片化、多元性和相对主义。
基本信息:
中图分类号:D771.2
引用信息:
[1]刘春朋.动荡中的重构：基于2026年中期选举的美国政党重组研究[J].中外交流研究(中英文),2026,2(04):33-47.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金2025年度区域国别学和国际问题研究青年项目“美国政党重组对特朗普第二任期外交政策的影响及中国应对研究”（25CGJ072）的阶段性研究成果
2026-07-15
2026-07-15